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美AI学者喊话特朗普：跟中国合作吧，早说美国赢不了_我的网站

A |     美国知名人工智能学者加里·马库斯（Gary Marcus）7月20日在个人博客发文称，中国人工智能模型已“几乎追平”美国最先进水平，美国不可能在这场AI竞赛中“获胜”，华盛顿应停止将AI视为零和博弈，转而探索国际合作与公共产品路径。    

    An exhibitor showcases Ethiopian coffee beans at the 2026 Dianchi International Coffee Culture Carnival in Kunming, Southwest China's Yunnan Province, on August 9, 2026. Photo: VCG It has been three months since China becomes the first major economy to grant unilateral, comprehensive zero-tariff treatment to all African countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations, as well as all least developed countries having diplomatic ties with China. Effective May 1, China extended the favorable policy to 53 African countries. Two African diplomats stationed in China have shared with the Global Times about the benefits of China's policy, particularly in trade of coffee, as well as China's exemplary role in promoting cooperation among Global South countries.
    Aziza Geleta, Deputy Head of Mission of the Ethiopian Embassy in China Photo: Courtesy of the Ethiopian Embassy in China Aziza Geleta, Deputy Head of Mission of the Ethiopian Embassy in China, told the Global Times that the trade policy demonstrates China's commitment to strengthening mutually beneficial economic cooperation with Africa.
For Ethiopia, which is believed to be the birthplace of coffee, this initiative presents significant opportunities. 
"Coffee is not only our leading agricultural export but also an integral part of our cultural heritage. For centuries, Ethiopians have preserved a unique coffee tradition, where families and neighbors gather to prepare and share coffee in a ceremony that symbolizes hospitality and friendship in community," Geleta said. 
With improved market access, Ethiopian coffee exports to China are expected to grow substantially. China has become one of the world's fastest-growing coffee consumption markets and is now Ethiopia's third-largest coffee export destination, Geleta noted.
In 2025, China's coffee industry was valued at 354.9 billion yuan ($52.63 billion), up 13.3 percent year on year. Annual per capita consumption rose from 22.24 cups to 28.57 cups, while the value of coffee bean imports increased by 73.9 percent year on year, according to the 2026 China Urban Coffee Development Report released in July. 
The Ethiopian diplomat believes China's zero-tariff policy will enhance the competitiveness of Ethiopian coffee, increase export earnings, and encourage greater investment across the coffee value chain, including processing, packaging, branding, logistics and quality certification. 
Since July 20 this year, China has granted full market access to coffee beans meeting quarantine requirements from all African countries that have diplomatic ties with China. The full market access is regarded as a landmark achievement in China-Africa cooperation on agricultural market access.
Geleta said that Ethiopia warmly welcomes this landmark policy. Having joined China's zero-tariff arrangement in 2024, the East African country has already witnessed its positive impact on bilateral trade and economic cooperation.
"The policy goes beyond tariff preferences. It demonstrates a practical commitment to South-South cooperation based on mutual respect, shared development and win-win partnership," Geleta noted. 
It creates new opportunities for African countries to diversify exports, strengthen productive capacity and participate more actively in global value chains, the diplomat said. 
As members of the Global South, Ethiopia and China share a common vision of promoting inclusive and sustainable development. This zero-tariff initiative establishes a valuable benchmark for building agricultural trade rules that better reflect the development needs of emerging economies, she noted. 
It also complements the objectives of the FOCAC and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by supporting greater regional integration and international market access, said Geleta. AfCFTA is a flagship initiative of the African Union designed to transform the continent into the world's largest free-trade area, per the AU.
From Geleta's observation, the market access granted by China is not merely a trade policy, but also a practical example of development cooperation that benefits ordinary people.
Coffee farming sustains millions of Ethiopian households, so greater access to China's market bears direct significance for poverty alleviation, rural advancement and national economic transformation. The policies foster steady demand for Ethiopian coffee, increasing farmer's earnings and bolstering rural community resilience, she said. Such gains closely echo the China-proposed Global Development Initiative, which emphasizes poverty reduction, food security, inclusive growth and sustainable development. 
The diplomat said Ethiopia welcomes Chinese investment in agricultural processing, cold-chain logistics, food manufacturing and value-added industries in Ethiopia. Such investment will support industrialization, technology transfer and job creation while strengthening resilient supply chains, Geleta added. 
    Ambassador of Lesotho to China Mapaballo Lydia Mile Photo: Courtesy of the Embassy of the Kingdom of Lesotho in China Ambassador of Lesotho to China Mapaballo Lydia Mile told the Global Times that the zero-tariff policy since May is "a direct, tangible deliverable of the commitments made under the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) framework. It transitions the rhetoric of 'win-win cooperation' into practical policy."
Mile said the policy provides a structured, phased approach to reducing trade difficulties and securing institutional guarantees. "It perfectly embodies the strong, historical foundations built through FOCAC over the years to forge a modernized, forward-looking economic future."
Amid comments saying that African countries still face challenges beyond tariffs, including logistics, standards and market-access capacity, Ambassador Mile of Lesotho said that tariff reduction is a necessary condition for trade expansion; however, more conditions are required to reach deals. 
Take Lesotho, a landlocked country, for instance. The country faces acute logistical hurdles and high transport costs. Complying with sanitary and phytosanitary measures, as well as quality standards remains a massive challenge for many enterprises in Lesotho. 
To fully benefit from the favorable tariff policy, Mile pointed to systemic technical support for African exporters, targeted investments in agro-processing, and enhanced trade facilitation. 
"Initiatives recently introduced by China Customs, such as the 'Green Channel 2.0' for agricultural products and expanding authorized economic operator mutual recognition capacity building, are exactly the types of institutional support needed to overcome the non-tariff barriers," she elaborated. 
。         马库斯是美国知名人工智能学者、纽约大学名誉教授，长期研究机器学习与认知科学，近年来因主张发展更可靠的通用人工智能而备受关注。

B |          马库斯在博文中提到，中国人工智能公司月之暗面（Moonshot AI）近日发布的Kimi K3模型，在性能上已与美国顶尖模型大体相当，而且采用“开放权重”模式，用户可免费下载并在本地运行。他认为，这一消息是上周美国股市相关板块下跌的原因之一，也再次动摇了OpenAI和Anthropic等公司的商业模式。          2026年7月20日，观众在上海举办的2026世界人工智能大会上参观月之暗面的大模型Kimi展台。IC Photo          他指出，在Kimi K3之前，智谱GLM 5.2、阿里巴巴新一代通义千问模型也已引发广泛关注。

C |          “这不是偶然事件，而是趋势。

D | ”他写道。         马库斯表示，他早在2025年初DeepSeek发布后就曾预测：如果美国继续把资源集中投入大语言模型（LLM），就无法取得对中国的决定性优势；最终双方更可能走向“平局”。         他当时还预测，由于缺乏真正的技术护城河，OpenAI难以实现稳定盈利，英伟达也会面临竞争压力，美国《芯片与科学法案》对遏制中国作用有限，而模型会越来越便宜、高效，但幻觉和可靠性问题仍将长期存在。         “现在看来，这些事情基本都发生了。”          在马库斯看来，美国政府过于接近硅谷，几乎把硅谷关于生成式AI的愿景当成现实，导致战略误判。他批评说，美国“不应该一开始就把全部赌注压在生成式AI上”，因为这一领域从来没有展现出足够强的技术壁垒。         对于当前局面，他建议美国国会展开调查，包括美国为何丧失领先优势、是否过度押注单一技术、知识产权保护是否不足、限制移民是否导致人才流失等。他特别提到，有的中国AI企业创始人曾在美国求学，之后回到中国发展，这值得美国反思。

E |          更重要的是战略选择。

F | 马库斯列出了特朗普政府可能考虑的七种方案，包括：不提供补贴、禁止开源、通过监管为美国公司构筑“护城河”、救助大型AI实验室、全面封禁中国模型、将OpenAI和Anthropic收归国有等。         他对其中多数方案持否定态度，尤其反对利用监管手段排挤中国竞争者，认为这会推高价格、压制创新，并伤害美国本土初创企业。         他还反对由政府出资“救助”OpenAI等公司，直言这些企业目前“基本都是亏损项目”，AI行业也尚未证明自身具备可持续盈利能力。         马库斯最终提出，他最支持的方案是放弃“赢得AI战争”的零和思维，推动建立类似欧洲核子研究中心（CERN）的国际AI合作机制，把人工智能建设成全球公共产品。         他回顾称，自己早在2016年就提出建立“AI版CERN”的设想，让各国科学家围绕医学、科学等明确目标开展合作，并向全世界共享成果，而不是由少数国家或企业垄断。         文章特别提到，中方最近在人工智能大会上重申愿同各国推动人工智能向善普惠发展，为国际讨论打开了一个重要窗口。

G |          “也许现在终于到了认真考虑这件事的时候。”他写道，“如果能把AI重新放回公共领域，通过国际合作服务于医学和科学，这或许是目前最有希望的方向。”          马库斯敦促特朗普说，如果他真想获得诺贝尔和平奖，这么做或许是一个契机，并与中国达成合作，把人工智能用于公共利益，将会是一个“送给人类的厚礼”。

H |          本文系观察者网独家稿件，未经授权，不得转载。

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