省防指于今天17时将防台风应急响应提升至Ⅰ级。         Tian Xuan Photo: Courtesy of Tian
In economic theory, "overcapacity" - for which no universally accepted definition exists - is inherently a recurring feature of the market economy's dynamic "balance - imbalance - rebalance" cycle. The Western narrative that equates China's sizable production capacity directly with "overcapacity" defies economic logic and rigor; in reality, it represents a politicization of trade and economic issues.
First, it confuses the concepts of "capacity scale" and "overcapacity." China's overall industrial capacity utilization remains within a reasonable range. Periodically lower utilization in traditional sectors reflects a normal adjustment as these industries advance toward high-end, intelligent, and green production. Ample capacity in certain emerging industries is precisely what meets surging global demand for high-end, smart, and green solutions. Therefore, equating scale with excess is typical equivocation.
Second, "overcapacity" itself is a dynamic feature of market economies, where no fixed balance persists indefinitely. Judging capacity based solely on static snapshots violates basic economic principles.
Third, it is erroneous to simplistically link trade surpluses or industrial subsidies to overcapacity, while ignoring the macro context of global specialization and cross-border savings-investment structures. It also disregards the reality that reasonable capacity utilization ranges differ across economies at varying stages of development. Imposing a single standard on China is neither scientific nor rigorous.
China's global competitiveness in green technology stems from sustained, large-scale investment in innovation, a comprehensive industrial and supply chain system, massive application scenarios, and intense market competition - not from alleged government subsidies. After decades of long-cycle R&D, Chinese industries have achieved breakthroughs in core technologies such as power batteries and photovoltaic modules.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China's nationwide R&D spending grew at an average annual rate of 10 percent. Economies of scale have continuously diluted production costs. China's ultra-large domestic market and full-chain supporting ecosystem provide an optimal testing ground for new technologies - from pilot verification to mass deployment. With more than 200 million market entities driving fierce competition, enterprises are constantly compelled to cut costs, raise efficiency, and upgrade products, thereby forging dual advantages in price and performance that we see today.
There is no direct causation between subsidies and overcapacity. Industrial subsidies are a globally recognized practice, typically aimed at correcting market failures and advancing critical technologies. China's subsidies are granted on an impartial basis to all types of market entities, in full compliance with WTO rules, and have not triggered disorderly capacity expansion.
Currently, capacity utilization in China's green industries remains within a reasonable range. Support is primarily directed toward R&D, technological breakthroughs, and consumer-side incentives through market-based mechanisms - not toward fueling overcapacity. Crucially, China's high-quality capacity has reduced the global cost of green transition, representing an opportunity rather than a shock to world development.
Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality goals, labeling China's new energy capacity as "overcapacity" is entirely untenable. According to the International Energy Agency, global data center electricity consumption will approach 1 trillion kWh by 2030, with 40 percent of incremental power needing to come from renewables. Demand for wind power, photovoltaics, power batteries, and related green energy solutions remains far from saturated - so claims of "overcapacity" are groundless.
China's capacity plays a central role in advancing the global energy transition. Over the past decade, the levelized cost of electricity from wind and solar globally has fallen by more than 60 percent and 80 percent respectively - improvements largely attributable to Chinese innovation and manufacturing, which have directly lowered the cost threshold for worldwide green transformation.
The US journal Science crowned the global renewable energy surge led by China among its Top 10 Breakthroughs of 2025. Leveraging its technological and scale advantages, China is well positioned to supply abundant, high-quality green energy equipment and solutions, meet fast-growing renewable demand from data centers, industrial production, and other sectors, and tangibly support countries in implementing the Paris Agreement. In short, China is a pivotal force driving the global low-carbon transition.
The so-called "China Shock 2.0" is fundamentally a protectionist narrative rooted in Cold War thinking - a politically motivated claim inconsistent with facts. The rapid development of China's modern industries is driven by innovation and sustained institutional reform, not by dumping allegedly excess capacity abroad. Rather than posing a shock, China's industrial progress offers a "China Opportunity 2.0." It delivers multiple dividends to global development - innovation dividends, market dividends, and growth dividends - while injecting stability and vitality into global industrial chains through an open and win-win approach.
China's high-quality green and high-tech exports have tangibly accelerated the global green transition and reduced production costs worldwide. Meanwhile, as the world's largest goods consumption market and the second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years, China provides enormous market opportunities for economies around the globe. Moreover, China's open-source collaboration and technology sharing in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and the digital economy enable developing countries to bridge the digital divide at lower cost and share in the benefits of the technological revolution.
The facts demonstrate that China's emerging technologies and products represent a "China Opportunity 2.0" - driving global technological progress, accelerating the green transition, improving livelihoods across nations, and bolstering the industrialization of developing economies. This open and mutually beneficial cooperation stands as the true engine of global economic recovery and sustainable development. 
This article is compiled based on an interview with Tian Xuan, dean at the Guanghua School of Management and Boya Distinguished Professor of Finance of Peking University. [email protected]

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B | 省气象局于今天17时50分将重大气象灾害（台风）业务服务Ⅱ级应急响应调整为Ⅰ级应急响应。市防指于今天19时30分将防台风应急响应提升至Ⅱ级。杭州市气象台15时54分发布台风蓝色预警信号。来了解“梅花”的最新动向和对杭州的影响。“梅花”动向今年第12号台风“梅花”（强台风级）今天（13日）17时中心位于距离杭州东南方向约576公里的海面上，预计将以每小时15公里左右的速度向北偏西方向移动，强度维持或略有加强，逐渐向浙江中北部沿海靠近，并可能于14日下午到夜里在三门到舟山一带沿海登陆。从昨天的台风“登陆或擦过”沿海地区，到今天各大数值模式对“登陆”这个趋势基本达成一致，其中原因是海上的副热带高压和大陆高压合并加强，使得台风路径上的偏西分量增加。

C | 省防指、市防指提升防台风应急响应根据《浙江省防汛防台抗旱应急预案》，省防指决定于9月13日17时将防台风应急响应提升至Ⅰ级。受台风影响，今天夜里到15 日早晨杭州东部及临安北部山区有大雨到暴雨，局部大暴雨，其它地区阴有中阵雨，局部大雨到暴雨。14 日-15 日上午最大偏北风 7～9级，部分高山区和钱塘江等江湖水面 9～10 级个别11级，梅花台风将对杭州产生严重影响。

D | 根据《杭州市防汛防台抗旱应急预案》，市防指决定于今天19时30分将防台风应急响应等级提升至Ⅱ级。杭州明天大雨到暴雨，局部大暴雨对杭州来说，台风这个路径所带来的风雨影响会比原先预计的更大，杭州市气象台15时54分发布台风蓝色预警信号。预警内容：受台风“梅花”影响，预计上城区、拱墅区、滨江区、西湖区和钱塘区所有街道今天（13日）傍晚到夜里阴有中到大阵雨，局部暴雨，明天（14日）阴有大雨到暴雨，局部大暴雨；明天最大偏北风6至8级，钱塘江等江湖水面可达9到10级，需注意防范短时强降雨可能引发的城乡积涝和大风对在建工地、临时工棚、户外广告牌、园林绿化等的不利影响。防御措施：1.政府及相关部门做好防台准备工作；2.相关水域水上作业和过往船舶采取积极的应对措施；3.紧固门窗、围板、棚架、户外广告牌、临时搭建物等易被风吹动的搭建物，妥善安置易受热带气旋影响的室外物品；4.检查城市、农田排水系统，做好排涝准备。风的影响今天夜里东北风4-5级阵风6级，部分高山区和钱塘江等江湖水面5-6级阵风7-8级，14日至15日上午最大偏北风7-9级，部分高山区和钱塘江等江湖水面9-10级、个别11级。雨的影响今天夜里到明天前期受到台风北侧倒槽和冷空气结合的影响，云团不甚紧密，杭州的雨呈现阵性特点，时、空分布不太均匀。明天后期开始随着台风靠近，杭州将受台风本体影响，雨量增大而且更加均匀。此外，山区的地形有明显的增雨作用。

E | 预计今天夜里杭州东部和临安、余杭的西北部山区阴有中到大雨，局部暴雨；明天到后天早晨杭州东部及临安北部山区有大雨到暴雨，局部大暴雨。13日15时10分雷达拼图由于大气环流复杂，目前陆上海上多低压系统，可能产生相互影响，后期路径仍存在一定不确定性。气象部门将继续密切监测分析，也请大家持续关注。西湖西溪景区所辖公园景点等场所临时关闭，船只停航受强台风影响，杭州西湖西溪景区所辖公园景点等场所临时关闭，船只停航，具体公告如下：关于西湖西溪景区所辖公园景点等场所临时关闭的公告尊敬的市民游客：根据气象部门预测，第12号台风“梅花”将于14日下午在浙江沿海登陆。

F | 为确保市民游客在极端恶劣天气下的生命财产安全，9月14日（星期三）临时关闭西湖西溪景区所属各公园景点，游船和观光车停驶。恢复时间另行通知。请广大市民、游客合理安排行程，互相转告，给您造成的不便，敬请谅解。杭州西湖风景名胜区管理委员会（杭州西溪国家湿地公园管理委员会）2022年9月13日2022年9月13日9月14日良渚博物院闭馆9月14日良渚博物院闭馆，开馆时间根据防指最新要求另行通知。请观众及时关注天气变化，及时调整安排好自己的行程，注意出行安全。

G | 如有疑问，请致电：0571-88781340。受台风“梅花”影响，良渚古城遗址公园启动台风应急响应，为保障访客生命财产安全，良渚古城遗址公园、瑶山遗址公园、老虎岭遗址公园于9月14日临时闭园一天。开园时间另行通知。

H | 由此带来不便，敬请谅解！如需咨询请拨打0571-85855300。资料/中央气象台、市气象局、杭州西湖风景名胜区管委会（杭州西溪国家湿地公园管委会）、杭州良渚遗址管理区管委会